Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.156238 2.260139 2.370383 2.496807 2.638730 2.794308 2.979415
2025-03-23 2.015872 2.161125 2.323303 2.520482 2.757690 3.039523 3.409283
2025-03-30 1.885657 2.048699 2.236455 2.473399 2.772065 3.148178 3.681170
2025-04-06 1.783398 1.955606 2.158281 2.421071 2.764215 3.216811 3.901767
2025-04-13 1.709004 1.888286 2.103124 2.388167 2.772071 3.300339 4.152695
2025-04-20 1.674061 1.865133 2.098728 2.416877 2.861236 3.505360 4.636204
2025-04-27 1.657328 1.862321 2.118197 2.476554 2.997606 3.800148 5.369433
2025-05-04 1.619785 1.830543 2.097330 2.478241 3.048203 3.966941 5.929899
2025-05-11 1.586326 1.801912 2.078290 2.479950 3.097455 4.138415 6.584292
2025-05-18 1.537239 1.750749 2.026265 2.430411 3.060794 4.150062 6.857785
2025-05-25 1.506393 1.722070 2.003012 2.420710 3.086292 4.280374 7.533654
2025-06-01 1.474786 1.691066 1.974958 2.401751 3.094109 4.377266 8.188458
2025-06-08 1.439180 1.654542 1.939099 2.371041 3.082926 4.441853 8.836808
2025-06-15 1.425210 1.646370 1.942180 2.399425 3.176252 4.749449 10.928602
2025-06-22 1.390168 1.608541 1.901858 2.358133 3.141738 4.763712 11.679702
2025-06-29 1.355358 1.570033 1.859217 2.311030 3.092823 4.736221 12.193637
2025-07-06 1.327801 1.540636 1.828552 2.281269 3.073369 4.777545 13.336094
2025-07-13 1.318618 1.535971 1.832978 2.307266 3.160088 5.107126 18.545286
2025-07-20 1.317880 1.542750 1.854019 2.361184 3.307128 5.658461 41.093501
2025-07-27 1.302525 1.528671 1.843800 2.362705 3.349821 5.926034 146.790510
2025-08-03 1.287968 1.515259 1.834009 2.364247 3.392645 6.214513 NaN
2025-08-10 1.261812 1.484913 1.798021 2.319507 3.333283 6.132263 NaN
2025-08-17 1.246197 1.469104 1.783386 2.310734 3.350772 6.336636 NaN